Ten years following the UK entered into a hurried public vote that split the country and caused turmoil, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two prominent journalists from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have studied the political, financial and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of lectures that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an extremely polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the victorious side are uncertain precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say that moment is imminent, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"Many are for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in academia but very few government figures or campaigners are willing to participate even with the basics. For instance, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, none of the commentators endorses unification or the status quo. Each writes two articles that strive for neutrality in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the case against, assembling economic and societal data, historical precedents and structural examples.
Debates cover flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and encourage discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said the writer. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the notion that there could be good arguments on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they prefer unity but refuse paying higher taxes or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government does need to establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist thinks a national vote in his era is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a negligent government minister who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid points, he commented. "One side will prevail here and somebody will eventually lose but both parties has has important lessons to learn from the other's arguments."
Call for More Extensive Debate
Westminster must participate in the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."
